Decisions and Payoffs

The Fall 2009 quarter has finally come to an end with four exams in the last four days. The two math intensive courses - Finance-1 and "Decision Making Under Uncertainty" (mostly probability-based) - had relatively more intense exams this time, contrary to what we saw in the midterm. After a long time I saw a heavily mathematical and analytical challenge in the form of the Finance-1, and I am registered to study the Finance-2 (an elective) course in the winter quarter; just for Finance-2, if not for anything else, I am eagerly looking forward for the starting of the winter quarter in the first week of January.

Speaking of the course "Decision Making under Uncertainty", the subject was not that difficult. It is all about making informed decisions, when concrete information is unavailable, with the help of the probabilistic models. It is imperative for all managers (of people and/or situations) to face frequent challenges that require critical decisions but with not much information in hand. The decision trees and other concepts learned in the course do help one to better formulate the solutions to the challenges and help minimize the risk involved in the managerial decisions.

But then, what about the decision making under uncertainty in real life? As I look back and trace the every critical decision I made and each step I took since I graduated from NITW with my B.Tech degree, most decisions seemed to have paid off handsomely while some strayed me from the path. I am fortunate that those few wrong turns did not prove too costly for me, and more importantly I think I took right decisions when it really mattered the most.

Soon after I joined in a full-time job in Chennai, right after my B.Tech degree, I realized that my ambition lied in my higher education and I was not supposed to be working so early in life. That led me to decide to apply for graduate studies. But then, improper guidance and lack of Internet resources those days in India made me to apply to a few low-rated schools; I was also desperate to get some sort of financial aid due to the meagre financial situation back home - I entered US with just $800 in hand and without any upfront financial aid promise. A bit of a luck and more of perseverance helped as I staggered through my MS studies. At the end of it, all my efforts felt empty with no accomplishment to show on my record (except for a handsome credit-card debt), and I was gravely disappointed.

As I applied to the PhD program at a top school, almost all among family and friends were surprised and opposed the idea as if it were a trek to the top of the Mount Everest!! But, I was keen to prove myself (not to anyone but to my own self) at any cost - even the credit card debt and only a few dollars in the bank account did not deter me. All it required was a gentle nudge and encouraging words from Latha, the only one to believe in me, for the necessary thrust to take off. My determination (stemmed from my desperation and restlessness - plus my continuous self reminder that I only have a worse place to go if not this) and occasional financial help from Srinivas did see me through the first two years of the PhD program, the toughest years of my life so far (I think for most PhD students the first two will be the r(t)oughest during which majority quit).

Things did not help much as I could not pass the PhD qualifying exam in the first attempt. The desperation was so strong that not a moment was spared to even feel the anguish. And, the determination was so strong that I did not even blink before saying no to the lucrative full-time job offer from TI at the end of my summer internship after the first year in the PhD. I still remember the surprise look on the manager's face when I answered without even looking into the offer letter she handed to me saying that the terms were very attractive !!

It was tough winning the confidence of the PhD adviser; it was a long and hard journey, which seemed eternal through that dark passages to find the right research problem to work on while watching peer PhD students publishing and graduating one after the other. As the light at the end of that tunnel was seen in the middle of the third year, the confidence returned and with it the smile. I think the decisions made to enter and to continue in the PhD program, in spite of the stumbles and bruises, were so crucial that the attainment of the PhD degree transformed my personality entirely. The achievement of the PhD was the pinnacle and the Research Excellence Award was only an incing on the cake! I cannot even imagine myself existing at peace without such a milestone in my career, and I count each and every small and big decision in that process to be a crucial brick in the skyscraper I have been trying to build.

The walk through that fire also taught me the importance of a life partner who will only work to remove the last traces of self-doubt, and never deter or discourage or suck the time in lesser squabbles, and who can only augment the mental strength required to even pass through the hell if required. More than a few marriage alliances came to me (some with handsome financial "offers"!!) when I was about to graduate with my MS degree (assuming that I will take up a job) and then in the last stages of my PhD. But, the prospect of money and riches never excited me as much as the chance to be in the company of the smart and intelligent people did. The fortune of the continuous company of a well-read, deeply-aware, thoughtful, and intellectually-stimulating person is irreplaceable, at least for me.

When I first became acquainted with Neelima, I ensured several long conversations even before any preliminary decision was made. Neelima and my friends now make fun of me sometimes (in a lighter vein!!) that I quietly slipped in a puzzle in one of those long conversations for her to solve. The puzzle was, "say, you are given a rope with enough length to tightly bind around the earth at the equator; how much additional length of the rope has to be extended to you if you have to bind around the earth at the equator but now one foot above the ground throughout?" (I first heard this from my then peer PhD student Srini, who is now a professor at University of Arizona). I was delighted that Neelima solved it much faster than I did earlier; and my decision after that was only automatic!! Her awareness about the opportunities and challenges really showed me new paths to success, and her courage and support did allow me to take up the implausible adventures; without her the actions could have just been words and thoughts.

Marrying her was the last and the best crucial decision I made; once it was made, taking the rest of the turns was relatively easy as if the best GPS was guiding me!!

POSTSCRIPT: For those applying for MBA at top schools, remember that the admissions committee invariably looks to find in your essays, regarding your decisions, "why you did what you did" than just "what you did".